A testing week for Apple and ECB rate-setters

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

September is the month when the hopes raised by a restful summer break, at least for those in the northern hemisphere, can be dashed by the disappointments of the turn in the weather and darker days ahead. So it could prove this week with the news agenda.

Apple hopes that the shine on its latest product launch event this week will not be scuffed by the party poopers in Beijing, who have cracked down on government officials’ iPhone use. The buzz surrounding the iPhone 15, to be unveiled on Tuesday, was meant to help Apple finally unseat Samsung as the world’s largest handset maker. However, China generates about a fifth of the iPhone maker’s revenue.

The key economic event of this week will be the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday, which is on a knife-edge. Eurozone inflation, at 5.3 per cent, is too far off the ECB’s 2 per cent target for the central bankers to halt rate rises, especially with oil prices on the up and wages rising rapidly. However, recent data pointing to a sharp economic downturn could tip the balance towards a pause this time.

Clothes retail is a theme this week among the earnings reports with heavyweights H&M and Inditex. Will the late summer sun raise a smile or have these high street bellwethers got burnt? If these market leaders cannot beat the post holiday blues we might as well all shut up shop.

We are also heading into a series of significant anniversaries. Monday marks 50 years since the coup in Chile that brought General Augusto Pinochet to power and 22 years since the US 9/11 attacks.

However, Monday’s National Day celebrations in Catalonia, a focus for independence rallies, will be of particular concern for Madrid’s politicians this week because of the hardline separatist party Together for Catalonia’s kingmaker role in the formation of Spain’s next government. Junts, as the party is known in Catalan, wants to use its sway to secure wider official use of the region’s language and, more controversially, an amnesty for people facing criminal charges over the last push for independence. Spain’s acting prime minister Pedro Sánchez would no doubt welcome an autumnal cooling of temperatures this week, at least in the emotionally charged political debate.

What is your priority for the Week Ahead? Email me at jonathan.moul[email protected] or if you have received this in your inbox, hit reply.

One more thing . . . 

The Moules family, like many others, was focused on the return to school last week, with one young member starting A level studies and another preparing for GCSE exams.

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Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU: European Commission’s summer interim economic forecast

• UK: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Kent Invicta Chamber of Commerce

• Results: Oracle Q1, Vistry Group H1

Tuesday

• Apple holds its annual media event to launch new products in Cupertino

• Opec September Oil Market Report

• Germany: Zew Economic Sentiment Report

• UK: September employment data

• Results: Associated British Foods trading update, Fever-Tree Drinks FY, IQE H1, The Gym Group H1, Wickes H1

Wednesday

• IEA September Oil Market Report

• EU: monthly industrial production figures

• UK: revised July GDP figure

• US: September consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Inditex H1, Redrow FY, Tullow Oil H1

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

• UK: RICS House Price Balance

• US: August retail sales figures

• Results: Adobe Q3, IG Group Q1 trading update, John Lewis Partnership H1, Kier Group FY, M&C Saatchi H1, THG H1, Trainline H1 trading update

Friday

• Novartis holds extraordinary shareholders meeting to vote on Sandoz spin-off

• Rupert Soames becomes chair of medical technology company Smith+Nephew, succeeding Roberto Quarta.

• China: August retail sales and industrial production figures

• France: September CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: August insolvency statistics for England and Wales

• US: August industrial production figures plus September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

• Results: H&M Q3 sales update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Bangladesh: French president Emmanuel Macron arrives in Dhaka for a state visit, after attending the G20 summit in New Delhi

• Chile: 50th anniversary of military coup that ousted President Salvador Allende and put general Augusto Pinochet in power

• Norway: local elections

• Spain: National Day of Catalonia

• UK: TUC Congress for trade union leaders continues in Liverpool

• US: 22nd anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the US

Tuesday

• UK: Scotland vs England 150th anniversary match between the two football sides, recognised by Fifa as the world’s oldest international, at Hampden Park

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

• Rosh Hashana celebrations begin this evening to mark the Jewish New Year

• France: French air traffic controllers begin nationwide strike over inflation and wages revaluation. The walkout is expected to cause flight chaos amid the Rugby World Cup tournament, and could affect flights departing from other countries that cross French airspace

• UK: London Fashion Week begins

Saturday

• Germany: the 188th annual Oktoberfest, Bavarian beer festival and funfair begins in Munich

• UK: start of the 21st London Design Festival, an annual citywide showcase that includes architecture, furniture, graphic design, multimedia technology, fashion and fine art.

Sunday

• Australia: Philip Lowe steps down as Reserve Bank of Australia governor. He will be succeeded by Michele Bullock following her appointment by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in July

• Spain: 78th La Vuelta a España, aka Tour of Spain, cycling race finishes in Madrid